jefferson was a bit of a bounder but also that there's now a new book that i have to read which is this incredible beautiful thing. >> all right, if it's way too early it's "morning joe. "stick around right now it's time for chuck todd and "the daily rundown." general inquiry. the sudden resignation of the cia director david petraeus prompting serious questions on some national security and pushes congress into the who knew what and when mode. we'll have the latest developments later this morning. then there's the drama already on capitol hill over how to avoid plunging over the so-called fiscal cliff. are there enough republicans ready to raise revenue? but is that even enough to fix things without raising tax rates? plus, our autopsy of the campaign. now that florida has had enough time to decide who won there last tuesday, a deep dive into the oh, so coveted i-4 corridor. find out how the region that

includes disneyworld turned into the democrats magic kingdom. good morning from washington. it's monday, november 12, 2012. this is "the daily rundown. "i'm chuck todd. this is the federal holiday in honoring veterans day, by the way. to my first reads of the morning. it's a shiny metal object, the david petraeus investigation. it's overshadowing what is the biggest story still in washington for the next two months. the president this week will kick off an effort to rally public support for a deficit reduction plan that includes tax increases on the wealthy, leveraging the political capital that he believes he earned last tuesday. >> this was a central question in the election. and on tuesday we found out that the majority of americans agree with my approach. democrats, independents, and some republicans. >> that was his video address from the weekend. the president will meet with labor and progressive leaders on tuesday. he hosts leaders from the business community on wednesday.

all in an effort to enlist support before he hosts bipartisan leaders of congress at the white house on friday. republicans have been open to a deal which includes higher tax revenues but have refused to consider higher tax rates. timing is also a sticking point here. here is john boehner this weekend. >> 2013 should be the year to begin to solve our debt through tax reform and entitlement reform. together we should avert the fiscal cliff in a manner that ensures 2013 finally is that year. >> no accident, by the way, it was boehner who did the republican response to the president this weekend. the president holds the most leverage in the next two months, directly after the election and before tax rates expire. when the threat of a tax increase on the middle class hangs over the negotiations. republicans would like to try out the negotiations to see the political climate is better for them in the next congress. the big question is how much did the white house learn from the

failed debt talk to 2011? will the president bypass leader ship and begin to try to deal directly with the republican senators who have sounded the most open to compromise. >> i think there is a deal. the ying and yang of this is we know there have to be revenues. look, i haven't met a wealthy republican or democrat in tennessee that's not willing 20 contribute more as long as they know we solve the problems. and to what degree will the president put things like social security and medicare on the table? documents obtained by "the washington post's" bob woodward and shared on "meet the press" show the compromises the president was willing to make in order to meet an agreement. putting the medicare eligibility age there, adjustments to medicare premiums on the table, as well as an adjustment to the so-called consumer price index or cpi to calculate cost of living adjustments for social security benefits. how much does boehner speak for his conference, by the way?

how much leeway does he have to cut a deal that might anger some conservatives? this weekend there were signs of softening among conservatives on the issue of taxes. here is "the weekly standard questions bill kristol sunday. >> it won't kill the country if we raise tax as little bit on millionaires. i don't understand why republicans don't take obama's offer to freeze taxes for everyone below $250,000, make it a million. the republican party is going to defend a bunch of millionaires, half who voted democratic and hatch live in hollywood. >> although tom price who is running to lead the house republican conference said sunday he is open to closing some tax loopholes, he did buck boehner on the issue of health care. >> question, do most house republicans, do you agree with speaker boehner that repeal of obama care with this election, with his re-election, is debt? >> we're not opposed to the president's health care law because of the election. we're opposed because it's bad

policy and it's bad for patients. >> the 2012 election, though, was a demographic wake-up call for the republican party. now the party is getting advice from all sides, from those determined to rebrand the gop and others still uncertain it needs fixing. the committee is beginning a series of polls, focus groups and outreach meetings about its message and mechanics with the focus on latino voters. carlos gutierrez said that this isn't coming soon enough. >> mitt romney made some mistakes. i think mitt romney's comments is a symptom. i think the disease is the fact the far right of the party controls the primary process. >> senator lindsey graham said sunday he plans to revisit comprehensive immigration reform that was shelved two years ago. >> it's one thing to shoot yourself in the foot. just don't reload the gun. so i intend not to reload this gun when it comes to hispanic. i intend to tear this wall down and pass an immigration reform

bill that's an american solution to an american problem but we have nobody to blame but ourselves when it comes to losing hispanics. >> republican pollster tells "the new york times" it is obvious until republicans do do better among nonwhite voters they will cease to become a viable national party. we're going to have to address the fact younger people tend to be less conservative on a number of hot button social issues. a former bush adviser put it more bluntly. we have become what the left was in the '70s. former bush, if another republican man says anything about rape other than it was a horrific, violent crime, i want to personally cut out his tongue. the only woman in the house gop leadership said republicans have a communication not an ideas problem. >> i don't think it's about the republican party needing to become more moderate. i really believe it's a republican party becoming more

modern. >> karl rove didn't exact ly fal on his sword in an interview with "the washington post" for what some are calling a $300 million learning experience. quote from rove, it's the way of po politics you're going to have some good years and you're going to have bad years. and then he said of donors, quote, they all went into this eyes wide open and their attitude is beat them next time. where until now crossroads was only a spending in general elections, the super pac is considering picking sides in republican primaries to boost more electable candidates. finally we move to the story that is dominating washington. the latest on the fbi investigation that led to the sudden resignation of cia director david petraeus on friday. lawmakers are now calling for an inquiry as new details emerge about the entire time line. officials say the investigation began after jill kelley, a 37-year-old volunteer at mcdill air force base in tampa, complained of receiving harassing e-mails.

kelley and her husband met petraeus and his wife when he headed the tampa bay central command from 2008 to 2010. now the fbi traced those e-mails to paula broadwell, co-author of the tpetraeus biography that le them to other 0 e-mail that is did indicate a romantic relationship between broadwell and petraeus. this morning "the new york times" report says they were notified of petraeus' affair in the late summer. in the senior law enforcement official said they interviewed petraeus in late october and concluded there was no criminal violation. and on november 6, election day, the fbi informed the director of national intelligence, jim clapper. clapper then told the white house on wednesday. the national security team. the president himself learned of the inquiry on thursday morning. petraeus offered his resignation that afternoon in person to the president. the president accepted his resignation on friday. some lawmakers are asking why did the fbi -- why didn't they inform them or the white house

sooner. >> we received no advanced notice. it was like a lightning bolt. this is something that could have had an effect on national security. i think we should have been told. >> it's going on for several months and yet now it appears the fbi didn't realize until election day that general petraeus was involved. it just doesn't add up. >> eric cantor says he learned of the affair in late october saying in a statement, quote, i was contacted by an fbi employee concerned that sensitive, classified information may have been compromised and made certain director mueller was aware of the serious allegations and the potential risk to national security. petraeus was set to testify at a closed door hearing on the benghazi attack on thursday. now michael morell will go in his place but they said sunday they do expect to hear from petraeus personally. >> we have four dead americans

in benghazi. i don't see how in the world you can find out what happens in benghazi, before, during and after the attack if general petraeus doesn't testify. >> this morning the "today" show, a long time aide said this shouldn't overshadow his career and insists he does have more to offer. >> i don't think we can discount his 37 plus years of service. i don't think you can discount the time he spent at the cia where he had -- even though it was a fairly short time in span of a direct orship, he had significant impact. and i don't think we've heard the last of david petraeus. >> congressional intelligence committee leaders will meet with the deputy directors of the fbi and cia wednesday trying to male down details of the chain of events that led to general petraeus' stunning resignation last friday. multiple government officials have told nbc news that a cyber harassment investigation initiated bay friend of petraeus', the investigation was led to broadwell and then the extramarital affair.

according to officials both general petraeus and paula broadwell were interviewed the week of october 29 and they both confirmed the affair. this is the second time broadwell had been interviewed, officials say, and the financial conversation allowed the fbi to conclude there was no basis for criminal charges. the officials tell nbc once that was established james clapper was told about the probe the following tuesday which led to petraeus' regulars by week's end. andrea mitchell broke this story last week. she joins me along with justice correspondent pete williams. all right. there's a lot of time line. pete, i'm going to start with you because there seems to be a lot of concern among some folks on capitol hill. why did the fbi wait until election day, coincidentally or not coincidentally, to tell director clapper of what appeared to have been a closed investigation? >> another question might be,

why did they tell director clapper at all? >> exactly. >> remember that what the fbi investigates is potential crimes. and two things about -- here is what people at the fbi and justice department are saying. number one, it is not their habit, it is not their practice, as a matter of fact, are it's against all their rules to tell other agencies of government what they're investigating while they're in the middle of an investigation unless they need that agency's help. it's not -- it goes against everything they do to say, by the way, we want you to know we're in the middle of a criminal investigation. so they didn't know what they had. and until they had all the facts together, looking at the computer, interviewing broadwell and petraeus, interviewing her twice, finally figuring out what the facts are, then going to a prosecutor to see whether, remember, she is the subject of the investigation not him. whether she violated any kind of cyber stalking laws. the prosecutors finally say no. at that point, only at that point, is when they finally told james clapper. >> you believe the real question is why did clapper ever find

out? >> well, i mean, you could ask that question rather than the opposite question which is, "a," why wasn't clapper told earlier and, "b," why weren't members of congress told early yes. they do not tell other agencies. >> that could lead to more politicizing. >> and the other thing you have to remember the fbi does have an unfortunate history of -- there was one time when jmt edgar hoover trafficked in the secret lives of people and they're sensitive about that. >> the fbi taking down the cia, this feels like the '50s flashback. okay, andrea, let's go to paula broadwell here a little bit and what we know about this jill kelley. what can you tell us? >> well, first of all, there was a stage where they found some classified information on paula broadwell's computer. and until they shut down any possibility that it had come from general petraeus, which it did not, they still had an open investigation. they initially, of course, did

not know who was sending these supposedly threatening e-mails. and then they traced it to paula broadwell and then when they saw e-mails that they then traced back to general petraeus, they thought someone had hacked into his computer. they did not think it was from general petraeus, so they still had an inquiry, an open line of inquiry into whether or not someone had hacked into the secure e-mails of the cia. >> so they got a court order to look at paula broadwell -- >> from the national security court. >> it was a regular court. it wasn't fisa. >> did they ever get a court order to go into general petraeus' e-mail account? >> he cooperated in that sense. >> going back to paula broadwell, i'm going to play a sound bite from her, october 26 at the university of denver, which is only going to make people on capitol hill wonder, well, maybe she did have some access to classified information, particularly on benghazi. listen to her claims here. >> i don't know if a lot of you

heard this but the cia annex had actually taken a couple of libyan militia members prisoner and they think that the attack on the consulate was an effort to get these prisoners back, so it's still being vetted. >> all right. that sounded like a brand-new piece of news and information thrown out there and, of course -- >> i think it's unfair to assume anything here. we have to be very, very careful. she had so many different connections. she was moving and, in fact, the fbi established that the source of her -- the classified information supposedly on her computer was not the cia director. >> she did have a security clearance. >> so the fact that she is talking about secure information and perhaps bragging about things she does not really know, we don't know how much is grandiosity, how much is real, and we don't know the sourcing of any of this. but the fbi essentially shut down any information or any suggestion that he was sharing classified information. so there is no criminal conduct

here that relates to general petraeus or to paula broadwell. >> is the fbi investigation closed? officially closed? >> not officially but virtually, yes. i think they really feel they know all they need to know. it's all but closed, i think is the right way to say it. one other thing to think about here is we are looking at this in hindsight. think about this on the other side. the fbi in tampa gets a complaint from a woman who says she is receiving e-mails from, as far as she knows, more than one person, making all these strange allegations. >> were they harsh threats? do we know? >> this is one of the questions that was raised this morning. >> we don't know. >> joe scarborough raise this had question with me this morning and here is what i would like to raise with my expert, my counselor here, why would the fbi -- now this was a friend of hers. it turns out this fbi agent who was the same person -- >> she had access to somebody that maybe a regular person wouldn't have had access to. >> would a normal person with threats communicated by e-mail have had access to the fbi opening an investigation? >> it could.

cyber stalking is a federal crime. >> i have to leave it there. the famous heartbreak coming up. andrea, you know what those are. >> dianne feinstein, 1:00. >> behind-the-scenes in the fiscal cliff negotiation with two guys who know all the key players. three. my credit card rewards are easy to remember. with the bankamericard cash rewards credit card, i earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ both ] 2% back on groceries. [ all ] 3% on gas! no hoops to jump through. i earn more cash back on the things i buy most. [ woman in pet store ] it's as easy as... [ all ] one! -two. -[ all ] three! [ male announcer ] the bankamericard cash rewards credit card. apply online or at a bank of america near you. [ male announcer ] the bankamericard cash rewards credit card. sfx- "sounds of african drum and flute" look who's back. again? it's embarrassing it's embarrassing! we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!!

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congress returns to work tomorrow and, of course, faces the critical task of avoiding the year end fiscal cliff, that $500 billion in automatic spending cuts, tax rate hikes that could bring another economic recession for at least the first year of 2013. joining me now jim manley, former senior communications director for harry reid. is now with qga public affairs.

you guys should be able to combat with each other. brad, i know you are still close with congressman cantor. can you sort of explain, walk me through a little bit -- i know you know a little bit now in hindsight, how did congressman cantor end up knowing about this before the president? >> well, i'll tell you, it's probably the last place he thought he would end up and i was just as shocked as the rest of everybody to hear it when it came out on friday. my understanding of what happened is congressman reichert -- >> a republican from washington state. >> use d to be law enforcement agent himself, had a contact in the fbi. that contact raised a concern to him. he had a contact in the fbi who raised this concern to him. he passed it along to the chief of staff of eric cantor's office who then was put in touch with the fbi. knowing how things work in cantor's office, it -- they run by the letter of the law to a "t," so i'm sure everything was

done with heavy legal counsel and guidance. >> something like this, jim, you know the way the senate intelligence committee folks work particularly on both sides of this. finding out that an fbi agent -- we're calling this person a whistleblower, is that a fair description? >> i'm not quite sure i'm convinced i know what to describe this person as. i've listened to previous reports on msnbc. there are all sorts of rumors swirling around. i'm just not sure if that's the case or not. but i think there is a fair case to be made and has been by senator feinstein that she should have been given a heads up earlier than she was. no doubt about it. she has an amazing ability to keep things secret. >> fair enough. i want to go to fiscal cliff. i think there are two questions here. on the republican side it has to do with does john boehner speak for his conference and how far can the president go on social security and medicare without losing democrats on this? i think these are the two you can speak to both of these very well. so, brad, let me start with you. is speaker boehner in a

politically stronger position now than he was in july of 2011? >> well, i think the whole republican conference is in a very different position than it was in 2011. as to your top question does he speak for the conference? absolutely. but the situation is very different now than it was last summer. last summer you had a newly elected republican congress and president obama looking to increase tax at a time he had previously said five months earlier it wasn't a good idea for the economy. now it's a very different situation. now every american is facing a tax increase on january 1st. military sequester will hit by the end of the year if they don't do anything. the impetus is there to get a deal done. i'm confident that something can happen. if you look at all the pieces, it can be negotiated fairly easily. >> does boehner have -- and i'm going to be blunt here. there always was this is eric cantor going to undermine him? that always was the conventional wisdom in washington whether that was fair or unfair. >> well, i would say that's kind of unfair. a lot of this happens behind the scenes as you know. during the debate last year,

during the discussion last year they were on the same page, knew a tax increase couldn't get through the house. it was a matter of simple math. >> this time it can? >> i don't know that a tax increase can. are there ways to increase revenue? absolutely. speak speaker boehner tried to negotiate a very fine line and almost got there. >> jim manley, i moderated a debate in ohio, senator brown and josh mandel, and i asked senator brown point blank could he support raising the eligibility age on social security medicare and he said no. that's just not going to happen. this was a guy who just won in a swing state. how many senate democrats are in that position? we know where the president is willing to go here and it's a lot further. >> no doubt about it and some of this, as brad mentioned earlier was discussed during the debt limit negotiations last year. how many senators would be with senator brown? probably ten. the rest would have to be kicking and screaming. i think everyone understands that some of these issues have to be addressed as part of a

larger agreement. you mentioned speaker boehner, the other thing to watch out for is the fact senator mcconnell, normally a kaubs, very cautious politician by nature will look over his shoulder to make sure he doesn't face a tea party challenge. all of that together, i think, makes it a toxic atmosphere and something we will have to all watch carefully. >> now you -- do you believe that the president is giving up leverage if the republicans don't believe he'll go over the cliff? >> yes. >> and you think he has sent a message that he's willing to go over the cliff? >> i think he sent the message and i'm prepared to reiterate that. >> you think the president is willing to go over the cliff? >> i believe that he is prepared -- >> i have not heard that from him. >> you are looking at the fact that come january 1st if there's no agreement taxes will go up on everyone. including the middle class. i think that's a politically unsustainable position. that the republicans are going

to come to regret but, yes, you're right. you haven't heard it yet from the president. he needs to keep his flexibility open as we go into these negotiations but i think that people have those different strategies. >> if republicans don't believe the president -- that always seemed to give the republicans the most leverage on the debt ceiling, that the president was always going to find some way to get the debt ceiling raised. >> i hope democrats aren't willing to go off the fiscal cliff. real lives are impacted, the sequester will devastate the military communities around the kcountry. i hope what you are saying isn't true but, number two, look, i think if you listened to the words that each man is saying, from the speaker to obama, and i think they each represent their party quite well, is that there is a way to negotiate around this. republicans don't want tax rate increases because we believe it's bad for the country. it's not any ideological period. we don't believe it will help the economy. are there other ways to increase around that? sure. are there ways to make the super wealthy pay their fair share?

sure. that doesn't automatically have to come in the form of a rate increase. >> is a big deal going to get cut before december 31st or are we going to have the outlines of one or a punt for six months? >> in light of the fact we have less than two months to go, a couple of holidays coming up. the house and senate are just coming back this week. the answer to that, i think, is no. the question is what exactly can be done short term while looking at a long-term agreement. >> do you agree with him, no big deal, no grand deal now? >> the frame fork will be in place by the time they get home for the holidays. >> you do believe? >> i do. >> thank you both. we would like too much you back to sift through the rhetoric as it comes out since you guys don't have to dish out the rhetoric. >> a lot easier on this end. >> i bet. how will the fiscal cliff fears play out on wall street this week? we know how they played last week. the market rundown is next. it's not over until it's over. our daily rundown of undecided races is coming up.

there are recounts all over the country, folks. first, today's trivia we in honor of veterans day. when congress declared armies tis day, how many states were already commemorating it? ♪ i'd like to thank eating right, whole grain, multigrain cheerios! mom, are those my jeans? [ female announcer ] people who choose more whole grain tend to weigh less than those who don't. multigrain cheerios

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on auer rour radar, a few races we're watching closely. first washington state, that governor's race has a winner. democrat jay inslee beat mck mckenna. washington state still has the longest streak of electing democratic governors. republicans haven't had a governor there now, i think, we're working on our third

decade. now to the house. in arizona's district two race, representative ron barber, the hand-picked successor of gabrielle giffords, he pulled slightly ahead of challenger martha mcsally. b barber is now up by 330 votes. he had been trailing in the count when it was 100% before more ballots were found -- or counted. the mail-in ballots in arizona. we're going to keep getting more. in arizona's ninth district kyrsten sinema over vernon parker by nearly 9,000 votes. and there's still no winner in florida's 18th district between congressman allen west and democratic he opponent patrick murphy. at latest count the lead is by 500 votes. there was a partial recount in st. lucie county that makes the west folks think there should be evidence of a full recount. democrat ami bera leads lungren.

scott peters leads brian bilbray by about 1,300 votes. congressman mike mcintyre leads opponent david rouzer. we'll see if more votes trickle in. fiscal cliff remains in focus. business leaders are urging them to work together for a deal. becky, do we assume that the market is going to be reacting to fiscal cliff negotiations between now and the end of the year? >> well, it's probably mostly going to be fiscal cliff. it could be the rise of europe every once in a while. if you looked back at last week, the dow and the s&p had their worst performance for the week than they have since the week of july 4th of the dow is now down

for three weeks in a row and it's the first time that's happened since the dping of may. so the market is sitting up and paying attention and certainly the fiscal cliff is the driving factor. over the weekend on the talk shows the kind of things that we had heard. it sounded like people were maybe more amenable, the rift between the two parties wasn't quite as wide. as you laid out in your last segment, there is a big difference between raising revenue and raising tax rates and whether or not the republicans will go along with a higher tax rates is the big question. now it creates a lot of uncertainty. this morning because of maybe the sense that there is some common ground we do see the markets opening higher. the dow is up only 25 points and that's a big, big issue when you see the drops like we saw last week. it doesn't show a whole lot of confidence. you have ceos like mike jackson, head of auto nation. he's the biggest car sales company on the entire country. he said the week between christmas and new years are the most important ten selling days of the year for them and the concern about the fiscal cliff could hurt even the last ten

days whether or not we go over the fiscal cliff. chuck is this. >> he wants a deal obviously before the last ten days. >> exactly. >> i've heard that from others on other various parts trying to get this done before the holidays is a big deal for consumer spending. >> you don't want it hanging over christmas shopping either. >> exactly. becky quick, thank you much. now that florida has finally finished voting, we're taking a deep dive into the i-4 corridor where demographics are driving big changes there.

you heard it a lot before the election, if you want to know where florida is heading, watch the i-4 corridor. but how true is that going to be going forward? we're taking a deep dive into the counties that make up the areas still competitive but they may not be the bellwether that they once were. let me just show you what we're talking about here. the infamous i-4 corridor. here they are. here are the counties from daytona beach to tampa bay, orange county is officially orlando but seminole to the north, osceola to the south all part of the orlando media market. let me go through three counties in particular to show you the changes and to show you how while mitt romney did better than john mccain in the state of florida overall, he it did worse in these -- in the i-4 corridor and in particular in three counties that i'm going to point out here carefully. i'm going to start with hillsborough, if you will.

it's the largest -- sorry about that. look at this. just one day later and we're masking through everything here. you would think that all would be well with our app. let me get you back here to florida, the presidential race rather than the senate race. i missed the touch screen. the touch screen was always so much easier to do. so let's get right to hillsborough and we'll show you the raw returns in 2008. the president 53% to 46%. look at the raw vote total here. 286,000 votes n. 2008 he won hillsborough county but he had 272,000 votes, also the same 53% to 46%. but the president did increase his margin by 1,000 votes overall in his lead there. look at the swing from 2004, if you will, in hillsborough when hillsborough was a 53%/46% county for the president. when we move to orange county,

and i want to get us back there if you will, in orange county in 2004 it was a narrow, as you see here, john kerry won it by about 1,000 votes. in 2008 the president won it by 19 points. look at that. 273,000 votes. look at the raw vote totals and look at what he did last tuesday. he won it by the same margin but, again, he increased his vote margin by a giant, by more votes than romney did over mccain. and finally, i want to get to osceola because osceola is the story of the expanded hispanic, if you will. if you look back 62%/37% for the president this time 67,000 votes to 40,000. to 2004 just to show you the dramatic shift in just eight years. bush won that county 52% to 47% but look at that, he got 43,000 votes then. again, let me show you the raw vote total of osceola for mitt romney this time. he got 40,000.

just 3,000 votes less than president bush did and he won that county 62%, 37%. it shows you the huge growth. let me bring in adam smith because he is probably the most prolific political reporter these days at the tampa bay times. he lives in the i-4 corridor. he is probably one of these people that has said over and over again how the i-4 corridor, so goes the presidential election and yet, adam, we now have three elections in a row including governors races where the democrats carried the i-4 corridor and they actual ly los the governor's race even while carrying the i-4 corridor. what's going on? >> the map is changing and that's because of orange county, osceola and that exploding puerto rican population. i would argue as much as people look at palm beach county as a democratic strong hold, orange county is a more reliable county

than palm beach where democrats are shrinking their margins. >> mel martinez, of course, was an orange county elected official. not that long ago. that's where president bush plucked him out of. got him to run for the u.s. senate. here is what he said before the elections about why he thought things were going to sort of revert back to a republican norm in the i-4 corridor. >> the democrats are not making the numbers where they were four years ago. the i-4 corridor, hispanic polling in this area looks to favor romney and, in fact, early voting is going tremendously well among hispanics who are actually leading in the i-4 corridor. i think it's a terrific bit of news and we're just beginning to see a trend here that i think romney is closing strong. 6. >> obviously the trend was the other way because the most striking number to me among h hispanic voters for president obama was that he won cubans. >> he won cubans and that's

another fundamental shift in the electorate. miami-dade has been a democratic county. the margins are astronomical. obama won by more than 200,000 votes which a lot of people would have thought was impossible a few years ago, maybe months ago. >> do we call the i-4 corridor a swing area anymore? >> i'm not so sure you do. i think tampa bay filled the biggest media market is a swing area but you see what's happening in orlando, orange county area. that is on its way to being the number one market and that is very much going heavily towards the democrats. so you can see why you look at florida on that map, republicans have a lot of reason to be worried about the demographics. >> and if they don't make improvements on latinos can they win in the nonmidterm years. >> yes, they can. democrats here in florida have no infrastructure. they're laousy about turnout in

nonpresidential years. you are not going to have this ginormous obama machine. the rick scott race, he has a lot more reason to be optimistic than some democrats think. >> adam smith, who will be chewing on these numbers for years to come, i imagine, and, guess what, i don't think it means florida is out of the battleground. let's not be talking about this. it's just a purplish blue state if you will. adam, thank you much for coming on. >> thanks, chuck. our political panel will be here next. we'll do a little cliff diving and republican soul-searching. but first the white house soup of the day, there's no soup today because the mess is closed to honor veterans day. check our website, rundown.msnbc.c rundown.msnbc.com. doesn't just . it takes some doing. some coordinating. and a trip to the one place with the new ideas that help us pull it all together. from the things that hang and shine...

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what you will, the republican party is taking a hard look at the election and looking for lessons to learn. our monday panel, liz of the associated press, nathan gonzalez, our partner in crime, political editor mark murray. welcome all. nathan, i want to start with this. you after us saw more political polling than anyone else. what happened inside the republican world of polling that led them to not see this coming, because they really believed -- they did -- they really believed they would win senate seats and the presidency. >> it wasn't just the presidential polls or the senate polls. we were looking at the house level and that's why when you lack at our tossup districts, almost all of them broke democratic. and that's because the reapian polling was a lot more optimistic than what reality was. >> was there any republican

pollster that you know of that got it right? >> now you put me on the spot. some were further off than others. hundreds and hundreds of polls. you thought there were a lot of presidential polls, there were a lot of house level polls, too. >> i want to play a quick clip of newt gingrich, mark, because i think he says exactly what everybody in this sort of alternate universe that a lot of republicans were living in. >> i was wrong last week. as was virtually every major republican analyst. and so you have to stop and say to yourself if i was that far off what do i need to learn to better understand america? >> all right, newt gingrich, there's always two newts. that's the newt that sits there and says, hey, got to get better on immigration. got to get better on these things. republicans were only listening to themselves about this election which left them

stunned. >> jonathan martin had a great piece in politico today. a conservative echo chamber that you are all believing the rasmussen poll showed republ republicans, the obama campaign has all these problems, and they weren't able to picture. the republicans i chatted were were still stunned that a 2008 electorate or even like a 2008 electorate on steroids actually came out and, chuck, you and i were talk iing about pollsters make the point, all right, what is the worst case scenario? if republicans were trying to model this election, all right, what would the numbers be if 2008 came out and that wasn't in their numbers. >> liz, i do know the democratic polling was polling what they believed. now they believed in this demographic shift and we know they believed, look, it was over time it just happens every year. the country gets about two points less white every presidential election year. they modeled that but they modeled maxed out republican enthusiasm. >> sure. >> which is also why at the end the obama campaign's tracking had ohio down to what it ended up being about one to two points.

ditto that florida was a dead even race, virginia dead even. >> i have to say what was so shocking about this was not the outcome for me personally in the presidential or even the senate but how many highly respected republicans who i personally and professionally respect were saying to me up until the end we're going to win. they weren't lying. they were looking at polling on the electorate with the assumption the obama machine wasn't going to turn out that number. not aenl that the electorate was changing, they didn't account for that. they didn't account for the get out the vote effort. now the obama team looked at that electorate and then got out the vote. >> i want to play for you a clip from tom price because -- and see if you agree his assessment is a fair assessment about what the election, the message the electorate sent. here is what he said. the republican from georgia. >> i think what the election said is that the american people don't want unified government here in washington.

they want divided government, which means that we've got to get together and solve these remarkable challenges that we have. >> the democrats won the the national house democratic vote. the reason they didn't win control of the house -- >> because there are democrats packed into democratic districts and a handful of districts in california where there wasn't even a republican nominee. overall, i don't think people voted for more gridlock, they voted for people working together. have working government, not divided government. >> how many house republicans believe what he believes versus -- >> probably at least half the caucus. >> that's going to be the challenge for the fiscal cliff. trivia time, in honor of veterans day, we ask, when congress declared armistice day a federal holiday, how many states were already officially commemorating the day? it's a trick question. it was 48.

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let's bring back the panel. mark, the fiscal cliff, we're going to learn this week -- or maybe we won't. obviously the president believes he has to do an outside game as well as an inside game. labor leaders tuesday, business leaders wednesday, then -- public press conference, then he sits down with leadership. it used to be a year and a half ago, it was the reverse. >> the lesson that they learned in 2011 was putting all your eggs in the john boehner basket hoping to actually close and cut a deal with him behind closed doors isn't good enough. so you're seeing business leaders, labor leaders, one thing we posted this morning was, do they go for rank-and-file republicans,

people who might be willing to be part of a coalition to cut a deal? >> and nathan, mitch mcconnell's political issues that are in 2014, both a little concerned about a primary, got to be concerned about a real challenge in a general election, it almost -- won't mcconnell secretly want the president to work around him? he doesn't want to have to be a guy that cuts a deal in either direction? >> if you talk about tax rate increases -- it's still toxic within the republican party. it will take compromise on both sides. >> jim manley said the president has to make it public that he's willing to go over the cliff. if republicans don't believe he's willing to do it, he's handing them a piece of leverage. >> i don't know if he needs to go that far. i think he needs to show some backbone and have more skin in the game is what i would say on this. and i think the republicans are also going to be looking at the fact that in two years, they

have to answer to the electorate that said to them, figure it out. >> perhaps. the electorate might look differenty. shameless plugs? >> georgetown, hoyas' season opener. great game. >> my dad came here today. >> mr. gonzales. >> thanks for being a great role model and friend. >> darrell k. royal who passed away at the age of 88. a big memorial for him there. very classy to a classy man. >> that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." see you back here tomorrow. coming up next, chris jansing. bye-bye. ic meatloaf recipe from stouffer's starts with ground beef, unions, and peppers baked in a ketchup glaze with savory gravy and mashed russet potatoes. what makes stouffer's meatloaf best of all? that moment you enjoy it at home. stouffer's. let's fix dinner. than giving her a diamond

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